Today, the Aspen Institute’s Program on Manufacturing & Society in the 21st Century released a new econometric forecast, “What Would the US Economy Look Like in 2025 With a Manufacturing Resurgence?” The report, commissioned in partnership with the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, aims to provide the framework for how US policymakers can help bring manufacturing jobs en masse back to this country.
If stakeholders follow the recommended actions and can capture momentum to make a resurgence a reality, the forecast states, then several key changes in the US economy could be expected to occur:
- the creation of about 3.7 million new jobs directly in manufacturing
- the reversal of the trade deficit in manufacturing
- the manufacturing share of value added will grow to 15.8 percent of the GDP, as compared to 11.6 percent in 2012 and 11.1 percent in 2025 under a “business as usual” baseline forecast
- real manufacturing output would be over $1.5 trillion higher than in the baseline scenario
- investment in equipment and software would be 12.1 percent higher in 2025, relative to the baseline
- direct employment in manufacturing would rise to a level of over 16.3 million jobs, compared to 12.3 million in 2012
- services and government-related employment would not decline in real terms, but grow more slowly than manufacturing
Read the full report here.
Watch: Previously, Manufacturing and Society in the 21st Century discussed the trade policies needed to support growth in the manufactuirng sector.
